The Rational Root is a Bitcoin on-chain & cycle analyst. In this interview, 9 months on from our last interview, we look into the various Bitcoin price models Root has developed. We again review his Bitcoin Spiral Models, Bitcoin Hodl price models and Bitcoin halving & cycle charts. We discuss the growing evidence of Bitcoin scarcity, and bullish cases as we approach the next halving.
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In his first interview on What Bitcoin Did last August, the Rational Root made prescient predictions about Bitcoin bear market lows that occurred a few months later. The caveat is that he also stated “You always have to be a bit sceptical about models that predict the future, they can be wrong.” Nevertheless, the models Rational Root has developed have some conspicuous patterns that are worth consideration.
The Bitcoin Spiral chart Rational Root uses is incredibly powerful. It clearly shows a correlation between Bitcoin's price and the halving events. Extrapolating this pattern forward suggests we could be on the cusp of a new bullish price triggered by next year's halving. This phase is predicted to see a material price appreciation between $100,000 and $1 million in the next cycle.
We also debate whether Bitcoin is now correlated with other more significant asset markets, in particular the S&P 500. In essence, is there a correlation between Bitcoin’s price and risk appetite in the investment market? If such a link has been established, and a rescission occurs, this could lead to a deviation from the Bitcoin halving cycle patterns.
But perhaps the most bullish analysis Rational Root has undertaken involves the assessment of demand and supply indicators, such as his "Hodl Model", which predicts the growth rate of illiquid supply in Bitcoin. It’s simple economics that price is affected by the relationship between demand and supply, and, as Rational Root states “Bitcoin is becoming more scarce, and this data is not being paid attention to by many people."
