Episode notes
Oil flows through the Middle East are back near pre-war levels, but 10 year yields and the MOVE index are telling a different story.
In this episode:
- Why Middle East crude flows are back to pre-war levels while diesel and refined products still lag
- What the US and China statement on Iran and Hormuz tolls signals
- How the push for a China-free rare earth supply chain is going
- Why the MOVE index and French bond spreads are blowing out
- How stablecoins and Treasury bills could change what a dollar is
- Why Trump's comments on inflation and the debt point toward Bitcoin
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 - Back from the Ten31 portfolio retreat
00:00:47 - Middle East crude flows return to pre-war levels
00:03:19 - Diesel and refined products still lagging
00:04:25 - Tanker costs and Hormuz workarounds
00:07:06 - US and China statement on Iran and Hormuz tolls
00:10:41 - Rare earths and the China-free supply chain
00:12:31 - Jamie Dimon calls for industrial policy
00:13:32 - 10 year yield and the MOVE index breakout
00:17:23 - Weak Treasury auctions and Judy Shelton
00:18:08 - France and Germany bond spread blowing out
00:22:08 - White House and the frontier AI labs
00:24:10 - Bessent, Shelton, and the Fed chair picks
00:26:27 - Trump says inflation could pay down the debt
00:27:20 - Stablecoins and demand for short term Treasuries
00:29:44 - How stablecoins could redefine the dollar
00:33:00 - Euro weakness and the Bitcoin to gold ratio
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