Episode notes
On this episode of Swan Signal, Sam dug deep into the world of on-chain analysis with James Check and David Puell, exploring their new framework called Cointime Economics, and looking at trends on-chain that may signal a new bull market could be imminent.
"Cointime Economics: A New Framework for Bitcoin on-chain Analysis"
https://20368641.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/20368641/Cointime%20Economics%20%5BDIGITAL%20SINGLE%5D.pdf
00:00:00 “Swan Signal” Intro
00:02:05 Introducing Checkmate and David Puell
00:02:37 “Cointime Economics: A New Framework for Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis”
00:04:30 What is a “UTXO”?
00:06:41 Flaws of Traditional UTXO Analysis
00:08:55 “Lost Coins”
00:10:29 “Coin-days Destroyed”
00:13:13 Measuring “Liveliness” in Bitcoin
00:18:44 “Vaultedness” - Measuring Conviction for a Bitcoin Bull Case
00:23:22 What is a “Coin-Block”?
00:26:11 “The REAL Average Cost Basis” - Cointime: True Market Deviation (AVIV Ratio)
00:35:47 Determining How Coins are Actually Lost
00:38:40 “MVRV” - Comparing Market Value to Realize Value
00:43:46 “Sell-Side Risk Ratio”
00:51:20 What Checkmate and David are Seeing in the On-Chain Data
00:56:28 Limitations with On-Chain Analytics
00:59:54 The Most “Signal to Noise” OnChain Metrics
01:03:10 How to Connect with Checkmate and David
01:04:38 “Swan Signal” Outro
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