Episode notes
Is the four-year cycle dead, or is it about to be right on time again? Benjamin Cowen joins Brandon Green to argue that narrative follows price — not the other way around — and that everyone calling for "this time is different" said the same thing in 2017, 2021, and again in 2025. Cowen walks through the macro headwinds facing Bitcoin, what a new Fed chair like Kevin Warsh can and can't do, and why a midterm-year reset is the most likely path forward. Plus: his controversial take on Bitcoin treasury companies and why he believes they'll eventually underperform Bitcoin itself.
Host: Brandon Green - BTC Inc CEO
Benjamin Cowen - Founder & CEO of ITC
Chapters: 02:06 — From Nuclear Engineering PhD to Bitcoin YouTuber
10:32 — The 2025 Apathetic Top vs. The 2019 Apathetic Top Explained
15:17 — Bitcoin Cycles Inside the Macro Business Cycle
22:13 — Narrative Follows Price: Why the Four-Year Cycle Keeps Repeating
29:01 — Could the Midterms Mark a Surprise Bitcoin Bottom?
37:00 — The 40K Target: Realized Price, Balance Price, and the Path Lower
42:25 — The Fed Is Checkmated: Kevin Warsh, Energy Shock & Rate Cuts
47:51 — Why Treasury Companies Eventually Bleed to Bitcoin
52:14 — Bitcoin Beyond 2026: The Path to $1M and the 2040s Reset
59:30 —"The Bears Sound Smart, The Bulls Make Money"
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