Episode notes
Mentor Sessions Ep. 038: James Check on 2025 Bitcoin Bear Market Paradox, Great Rotation Bullish Selling, Cycle-Breaking Outlook & 200K Price Potential
Is Bitcoin in a "modern bear market" up 7.8% YTD despite massive $290B old coin sell-offs? On-chain expert James Check from CheckOnChain reveals why 2025 price action defies expectations, with 63% supply cost basis above 95K creating a "top-heavy" plunge risk to 80s—yet silent institutions absorb billions in "bullish selling" for a great rotation slingshot. In this BTC Sessions interview, Check breaks down paradoxical sentiment (Google Trends at all-time lows), why the 4-year cycle is dead as Bitcoin transitions to macro asset, derivatives shift (options now dominate futures for volatility explosions), treasury mania "smoldering ruins," AI bubble black swan printing trillions, and bull case for 150K fair value exploding to 200K+ fast. Essential Bitcoin price analysis for 2025: Bear firepower fails, sellers evaporate—stack now or get screwed? Don't miss this deep dive on on-chain data, macro traps, and why bears are "really, really wrong" for max pain upside.
Chapters:
00:00 Teaser & Intro
00:01:31 Bear Case Setup
00:02:35 Monthly Expectations Defied
00:03:11 UTXO Cost Basis Analysis
00:04:17 Bullish Selling Phenomenon
00:05:19 Bearish Sentiment Reasons
00:07:08 Institutional Buyers & Demand
00:09:03 Supply Side Indicators
00:10:55 Great Rotation Explained
00:12:18 IPO Moment Challenge
00:17:54 Future Growth & Capital Inflows
00:18:42 Bear Market Drawdown Risks
00:21:28 Psychological Hurdles Post-100K
00:25:24 New vs Old Bitcoiners Psychology
00:29:30 Broader Macro View
00:33:13 M2 Chart Dismissal
00:38:55 States Jumping In
00:42:02 Treasury Companies Mania
00:51:28 Derivatives Market Rundown
00:57:40 Black Swan Events & Bull Case
01:12:13 Outro & Plugs
About James Check:
On-chain Bitcoin analyst, founder of CheckOnChain newsletter—delivering data-driven insights on supply, sentiment, and market structure.
X.com: @_Checkmatey_
CheckOnChain: checkonchain.com
Check previous ep with Tom Luongo: https://youtu.be/5oS4sop9t2Y
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