Episode notes
Mentor Sessions Ep. 061: Macro Legends on Oil, the Breaking US Treasury Market, and the Dollar Crisis No One Is Ready For | Luke Gromen & Lyn Alden
Iran doesn't have to beat the US military. They just have to beat the US Treasury market — and that changes everything you think you know about this conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz is the chokepoint for roughly 20% of the world's oil supply, and right now it sits at the center of a geopolitical storm with consequences that reach far beyond the Middle East. In this deep-dive interview, we break down exactly how a Hormuz disruption cascades into oil price spikes, supply chain breakdowns, and a inflation surge that puts the US dollar's reserve status under unprecedented pressure. You'll understand why this conflict is as much a financial war as a military one, what it means for energy markets in 2026, and why Bitcoin's role as a neutral, non-sovereign asset has never been more relevant. Whether you're trying to protect your wealth or just make sense of the headlines, this conversation gives you the framework to think clearly when the noise is loudest.
⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 – Iran Doesn’t Need to Beat the Military, Just the Treasury
1:10 – Episode Intro with Luke Gromen & Lyn Alden
1:25 – Oil Prices, Futures Curve & Hormuz Crisis
2:10 – Will Hormuz Opening Fix Everything?
3:53 – Mid-May Deadline & Escalating Impact
8:02 – Supply Chain Fragility & Non-Linear Breaks
14:14 – The Upside-Down Global Economy (You Can’t Print Oil)
15:31 – Food Shortages & Global South Risks
18:35 – Inflation, Money Printing & Debt Spiral
20:04 – Why the US Must Print Money in 2026
24:10 – Treasury Market Stress & Buybacks
32:11 – Japan, China & Dollar Pressure
43:52 – Why Are We Really in This Conflict?
1:09:12 – Petrodollar Under Pressure & Gold-for-Oil
1:13:59 – Best & Worst Case Scenarios
1:26:54 – Bitcoin’s Role Right Now
1:32:23 – Final Thoughts & Where to Find Luke & Lyn
Follow Luke:
X: @LukeGromen
Website & Research: fftt-llc.com
Newsletter: fftt-treerings.com
Follow Lyn:
X: @LynAldenContact
Website & Free Newsletter: lynalden.com
Previous Episode: Prof St Onge → https://youtu.be/fqi7fwqyV1g
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