Episode notes
The Treasury just signaled it will do whatever it takes to hold the long end together, and Bitcoin ripped toward $80,000 about 45 minutes after the headline hit.
In this episode:
- Why doubling buybacks from $2 billion to $4 billion moved markets this much
- How the TGA could become the Treasury's next source of firepower
- Investment funds replacing the Fed as the marginal buyer of long end treasuries
- The US escorting oil out of the Strait of Hormuz under cover of darkness
- Why the Canada, Mexico and South Korea headlines are all really about China
- Private credit cockroaches surfacing in the Lakers and Dodgers ownership mess
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00:00 - Bitcoin charging toward $80,000
00:01:06 - Bull trap or breakout after months of coiling
00:02:45 - Treasury doubles bond buybacks to $4 billion per operation
00:06:17 - The TGA reportedly on the table to fund buybacks
00:08:42 - A whatever it takes moment with stocks near all time highs
00:11:06 - Who actually buys long end treasuries now
00:12:37 - Underwater bonds and freeing up balance sheet capacity
00:15:34 - Iran, the SPR at 1982 levels and crude stockpiles
00:16:59 - Sneaking oil out of the Strait of Hormuz after dark
00:17:58 - South Korea, Mexico and Canada trade headlines point to China
00:21:46 - Mark Walter, the Lakers sale and private credit's cockroach problem
00:23:28 - How a credit daisy chain could blow up the whole strategy
00:25:45 - World Liberty gets conditional charter approval from the OCC
00:27:38 - Stablecoins and a dollar system that looks pre-1913
00:28:40 - Trump defers on buying significantly more Bitcoin
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