Episode notes
In this episode, Matthew sits down with Plan C for a deep dive into the evolution of Bitcoin power law modeling and why many commonly used assumptions may be flawed. The conversation centers on a critical distinction between calendar time vs protocol time, showing how Bitcoin’s early block production delays still distort traditional models today.
The discussion expands into quantile regression vs OLS, where Plan C explains why Bitcoin’s skewed data makes median-based modeling more reliable than averages. He also introduces a newer concept around data weighting, suggesting that current models may overemphasize recent price action due to density bias, leading to unstable projections.
One of the most impactful takeaways is how small modeling changes can lead to massive differences over time. Plan C demonstrates that long-term fair value projections could differ by as much as 50% depending on the methodology used, challenging widely accepted Bitcoin price expectations. Overall, this conversation reframes how serious analysts should approach Bitcoin’s long-term valuation.
Follow Plan C on X: @TheRealPlanC
Crypto Voices: Episode 198
Chapters:
00:00:00 - Refining Bitcoin Power Law Models
00:03:42 - Calendar Time vs Protocol Time in Bitcoin
00:06:18 - Calendar Time vs Protocol Time Regression
00:10:45 - Comparing Bitcoin Start Dates and Projections
00:12:56 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Analysis
00:25:44 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Analysis
00:35:15 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Analysis
00:38:55 - Quantile Regression Superior to OLS for Bitcoin
00:42:04 - Measuring Self-Similarity: Weighting and Time Scales
00:44:15 - Log-Time Weighting for Stable Power Law Regression
00:48:48 - Bitcoin's Scale Invariant Power Law Properties
00:52:34 - Comparing Regression Methods and Stability
00:56:18 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Differences
00:58:14 - Protocol Time vs Calendar Time Impact
01:00:44 - Decay Functions and Bitcoin Supply Modeling
01:04:19 - Building a Mathematical Model for Price Distribution
01:09:08 - Decay Functions vs Linear Quantile Regression
Hosts: Matthew Mezinskis,
Music: New Friend Music newfriendmusic.com/
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Bitcoin, privacy, crypto, economics & liberty
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