Episode notes
- Lyn Alden returns to discuss Bitcoin’s current cycle, macro conditions, and her new sci-fi novel
- Panel examines a ~25% pullback and whether it’s a pause or a new bear market
- Lyn argues halvings now matter less; macro and liquidity dominate price action
- John notes 2025 doesn’t resemble 2021’s top across inflation, M2, deficits, and Fed posture
- Bitcoin behaves more like a large-cap asset with institutional rebalancing muting extremes
- Lyn sees mild recession risk amid fiscal dominance and a two-speed economy, with reacceleration in 2026–27
- TGA fill and recent repo stress cited as short-term drags on Bitcoin liquidity
- “OG” distribution framed as an IPO-like rotation to broader holders
- Treasury company update: Strive’s 12% SATA preferred and MicroStrategy’s new issuance, with scale advantages likely to concentrate winners
- Debate on France’s proposed 1% unrealized wealth tax and why Bitcoin is productive monetary savings, not luxury wealth
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