Episode notes
Mentor Sessions Ep 097: James Lavish and Doomberg break down the 2026 bond market crisis, Europe's diesel shortage, private credit risk, and Bitcoin as a macro asset.
Bond yields near 20-year highs, Europe staring down a diesel shortage, and private credit quietly marking its own books — the plumbing of the global financial system is under real strain, and this conversation maps exactly where the pressure is building.
James Lavish and Doomberg join BTC Sessions to connect the dots between the bond market, energy, geopolitics, and Bitcoin. You'll learn why the 10-year yield sitting at ~5% signals a structural regime change rather than a passing inflation scare, how private equity and insurance companies are stuffed with self-marked paper that echoes 2007-2008, and why Doomberg calls Europe's diesel situation the "Four Horsemen of the Diesel Apocalypse." You'll see the case that energy — not currency — is the base layer of every market, why nations are now selling Treasuries to buy fuel, and where Bitcoin fits as the "hot ball of money" hunting for the next asymmetric bet. Both guests also share the disciplined, rules-based approach they use to allocate across gold, cash, and Bitcoin without trying to time the market.
⏱️ Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
0:43 - Bond yields near 20-year highs and global yield melt-up
0:57 - Why the 10-year at 5% is a new regime, not a blip
3:28 - The death of the 60/40 portfolio
5:38 - Doomberg on Grant Williams, Luke Gromen and fiscal dominance
9:03 - Hyperscaler debt crowding out long-dated paper
10:16 - Echoes of 2007-2008 in private equity and insurance
12:19 - The Treasury default nobody will call a default
16:38 - How private credit marks its own book
20:16 - Every market has its own purpose and structure
25:26 - Trezor Safe 7 self-custody segment
29:55 - Money is a promissory note on energy
30:16 - Private credit, contagion and the mark-to-market catalyst
33:16 - Could real estate seize up the credit chain?
37:01 - Diesel, WTI and the Four Horsemen of the Diesel Apocalypse
42:43 - Why Europe is uniquely exposed
44:08 - Germany's nuclear mistake and the EU's fragility
47:47 - Why Germany may leave the EU
49:04 - Ukraine, Russia and the energy war
51:38 - Why bonds aren't seeing a flight to safety
53:23 - Bitcoin as the asset chucked overboard, now bid
57:03 - Doomberg's rules-based gold, cash and Bitcoin allocation
59:40 - Canada, Greenland, Carney and Trump theater
1:05:44 - Where to follow James Lavish
Links & Resources:
• James Lavish on X: https://x.com/jameslavish
• The Informationist newsletter:https://www.jameslavish.com/
• Doomberg on Substack: https://newsletter.doomberg.com/
⚡Previous Episode:
Zack Shapiro: https://youtu.be/iZ7e0hY0WL8
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