FedWatch 139 - Is This The Turning Point? Making Sense of Economic Data

Episode notes

Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles

Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a clear contrarian thesis of a deflationary breakdown of the financial system leading to bitcoin adoption. We question narratives and schools of thought, and try to form new understanding. Each episode we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.

Find all charts and links at bitcoinandmarkets.com/fed139

In this episode, we cover a lot of ground. Our main topics are the OPEC production cut and will it affect “inflation”, ISM and PMI reports in the US and briefly touching on China, and finally, US employment reports. This episode was recorded prior to the Non-farm Payrolls report on the 7th. Of course, we tie everything back to bitcoin and what this information means for bitcoin adoption.

On OPEC, we rewind the clock to October 2022 and examine the current cuts in the context of the previous cuts. Are they the same or different? After the October cuts, price continued to fall. Should we expect that today? What other lessons can we draw from the OPEC move? All these things are answered in this section on OPEC.

As for the ISM and Purchasing Managers Index we discuss the shocking deterioration of the US numbers. All aspects of the ISM report point to imminent recession, manufacturing, non-manufacturing and services.

Chinese numbers are less bad at first glance. However, since China is the manufacturing powerhouse, the manufacturing numbers are of utmost importance. Those numbers came in at 50, meaning no change and a deterioration from last month’s modest improvement. The numbers are not showing a reopening surge as many hoped, and if coupled with the OPEC cut, we can see that players will deep economic knowledge are hedging a China bust.

Lastly, the employment data out of the US is also showing a turn around. The JOLTS data, measuring job openings and hirings were really bad. The ADP data, the private sector alternative to the government surveys, is showing a notable slowing in the employment market, but less dramatic than others.

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