Episode notes
Hosts: Ansel Lindner and Christian Keroles
Fed Watch is a macro podcast with a clear contrarian thesis of a deflationary breakdown of the financial system leading to bitcoin adoption. We question narratives and schools of thought, and try to form new understanding. Each episode we use current events to question mainstream and bitcoin narratives across the globe, with an emphasis on central banks and currencies.
(Find links below or, along with charts, at bitcoinandmarkets.com/fed129)
In this episode, CK has returned from his trip to India and joins us for a big day of new economic data from the US.
On deck for this episode is a quick discussion about the US debt ceiling and then we get into the main topic in my opinion, US GDP numbers for Q4 2022 and the whole year.
US real GDP in Q4 rose at an annual rate of 2.9%. That is a pretty significant number for people expecting recession any day now. For the year of 2022, real GDP increased by 2.1% These numbers are in-line with my predictions of returning to a post-GFC (Great Financial Crisis) normal of low growth and low inflation.
The last topic of today’s episode is all about Japan’s new monetary bazooka, an amendment to “Principle Terms and Conditions for Funds-Supplying Operations against Pooled-Capital.” That’s just a long label for a program where the Bank of Japan (BOJ) lends money to banks to buy government bonds so the central bank doesn’t have to buy them directly. They’ve made it possible to give these loans at negative interest rates, and extended the term to up to 10 years. That means, they could pay banks to buy JGBs.
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Ansel Lindner: https://twitter.com/AnselLindner
Christian Keroles: https://twitter.com/ck_snarks
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Slide deck https://docs.google.com/presentation/d/1MXyQLIpFQC2YNy8p8BTzUnoEqLs1_Dv6PCYc3JzC4X8/edit?usp=sharing
US debt ceiling https://archive.ph/ipQoF
Q4 real GDP report https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2023-01/gdp4q22_adv_fax.pdf
Article on Japan’s new bazooka https://archive.ph/Mvw1p
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Written by Ansel Lindner
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