Episode notes
Sminston With is an anonymous Bitcoin researcher, analyst, and PhD in materials engineering who spends his time analyzing Bitcoin through a data-driven lens.
› https://www.youtube.com/@sminston_with
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TIMESTAMPS
00:00 Exploring the Bitcoin Cycle and Business Cycle Correlation04:39 Understanding ISM and PMI Indicators08:18 Liquidity Cycles and Bitcoin's Risk Profile11:41 Visualizing Bitcoin Price and PMI Correlation14:15 Current Market Sentiment and Future Predictions20:24 Google Trends and Public Interest in Bitcoin24:10 Gold's Influence on Bitcoin Bull Runs29:37 Understanding Bitcoin's Adoption and Narrative32:07 The Impact of Global Events on Gold and Bitcoin36:12 Analyzing Bitcoin's Performance Against Gold39:35 The Transparency of Bitcoin Data41:33 Cost of Production in Bitcoin Mining47:37 Future Predictions and Retirement Planning
ℹ️ EPISODE SUMMARY
Bram Kanstein and Sminston With discuss why the “Bitcoin four-year cycle” starts to look more like a business cycle. They tie Bitcoin price bubbles to ISM PMI, liquidity, and the risk-on narrative sitting on top of a risk-off asset. They confront what would invalidate the PMI thesis, and why sentiment lags the data. They break down Google Trends, gold versus Bitcoin, and a possible rotation signal. They close with miner cost of production and an updated Bitcoin retirement guide.
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